University of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801The Effects of the Russia-Ukraine War on Arms Sales: A Case Study of the United States and Turkey12694492ENShivaAlizadehUniversity of TehranAliEmamifarM.A. in Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranJournal Article20231023The sale of arms stands as one of the oldest trades in human history, enabling civilizations with superior weaponry and warfare capabilities to conquer others, even in the face of lower population. The historical context of the two World Wars demonstrated that belligerent powers could not solely rely on their domestic arms industry to shift the tides of war; rather, the performance of battlefield weapons played a significant role in determining their value. A notable example is the realization by Britain that suppressing Nazi Germany's U-Boat power required assistance from the United States (U.S.). The Royal Air Force imported B-24 bombers from the U.S. to locate and destroy the mighty U-Boats. In the present day, the U.S. dominates the arms trade, accounting for over 40% of global arms sales, while Turkey emerges as a rising star in the international market, particularly in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This research aims to examine the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on arms trade between the U.S. and Turkey, utilizing the arms sales theory to evaluate its assumptions. The central question this research seeks to answer is how the arms sales of the U.S. and Turkey have been affected by the Russia-Ukraine War. The argument put forth is that the performance and quality of Turkish and American weapons have led to an increase in arms exports to other countries. By critically analyzing the implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the arms trade, this research aims to shed light on the dynamics between the U.S., Turkey, and other nations, elucidating how armed conflicts impact the global arms market and the subsequent trade patterns that emergehttps://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94492_ab8fc423d860bd588e425163004dc6de.pdfUniversity of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801Russia- Ukraine Conflict (2022) and the Impact on the Economy of Asian Countries275494493ENKhairiAriffinUniversiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, Tanjung Malim, Perak, MalaysiaZulkarnainAbdul RahmanHistory Department, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaSah HadiyatanIsmailHistory Section, School of Distance Education, Minden, Penang, MalaysiaJournal Article20231023This article discusses how the ensuing Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 will affect the economies of Asian countries. Emphasis on the economic impact will be focused foremost on selected commodities such as petroleum, wheat, palm oil, and minerals. The disruption of essential world commodities, particularly petroleum and wheat, has been caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both countries are major exporters of these commodities. The resulting disruption in the trade of these commodities also has global ramifications, affecting the trade of other commodities. Consequently, countries in Asia have not been immune to these impacts either. This article uses a library research approach, especially reports and sources from international online newspapers such as Al-Jazeera, Financial Times, BBC and The Guardian. Local or regional newspapers such as Deccan Herald and Hindustan Times are also used for countries in South Asia, Nikkei Asia and East Asia Forum for countries in East Asia. In addition, financial reports issued by international bodies and organisations such as the Asian Development Bank, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are also used. The study found that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 will have a global impact on commodities, particularly in Asian countries. This impact encompasses price increases and shortages in commodity supplies. However, the effects on commodities vary across Asian countries due to factors related to commodity dependence, which contribute to the overall impact.https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94493_b36dd492d71ab452a92cee798a18069b.pdfUniversity of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801Negotiating Model of Democratic Transition: The Case of Poland557494494ENZoranJovovićFaculty of Philosophy, University of Montenegro, MontenegroJournal Article20231023The paper examines the complex process of transition from a non-democratic communist regime to a democratic regime, and the consolidation of the government system in Poland. The specificity of the democratic transition in Poland, in relation to other transitions in Central and Eastern Europe, as it will be argued is reflected in the nature of the non-democratic regime, which was more authoritarian than (post)totalitarian. Hence, while the communist regime was in force in Poland (1945-1989), social pluralism managed to be preserved to the highest possible extent. Preserved social and political pluralism played a pivotal role in the successful transition process. Following Mikhail Gorbachev's ascent to power in the Soviet Union in 1985, the military-party regime in Poland opted for a negotiation-based approach known as the Round Table talks. This compromise marked the conclusion of the negotiations and led to the introduction of semi-free elections and a controlled democratic transition in Poland. The momentum of the process gained traction when the popular Solidarity movement emerged victorious over the ruling communist group during the semi-free elections of 1989. The provisions of the Agreement were upheld by both parties, ultimately making Poland the first country, since the Second World War, to initiate a peaceful overthrow through regular elections. Significantly, the Round Table Agreement introduced the concept of a robust president elected directly by the people, an observation affirmed and advocated in this study. It was Solidarity leader Lech Wałęsa who first assumed this influential position, marking a historic milestone in Poland's political landscape. The agreement's establishment of a directly elected strong president enhances the analytical structure and aligns with the study's conclusions.https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94494_8687c6d673c2f78f4105e8c6cb0a3554.pdfUniversity of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801Democracy in Kyrgyzstan: Opportunities and Challenges759294495ENSubratKumar BiswalUpendranath College, Soro, IndiaRamakrushnaPradhanDepartment of Political Science, School of Social Science, Guru Ghasidas University,Vishwavidyalaya, IndiaJournal Article20231023<span style="letter-spacing: -.1pt;">This research paper scrutinizes the political transformations that occurred in Kyrgyzstan following the post-Soviet era, while positing that systemic factors impede the nation-building process and contribute to political turbulence. The study incorporates an examination of the legal and political developments during the post-Soviet period, employing historical and dialectical methodologies to evaluate the state of democracy in the Republic of Kyrgyzstan. Furthermore, the paper delves into the underlying causes of political unrest, the subsequent transition to a parliamentary democracy, and the potential avenues for representative democracy. The research concludes by highlighting a discernible tension between the existing political culture and traditional structures, which influence the direction of democratic progress in Kyrgyzstan. To assess the democratic transition and significant institutional changes in Kyrgyzstan, this article utilizes a qualitative evaluation. The analysis is based on a comprehensive examination of relevant literature pertaining to the democratization process in Central Asia, with a specific focus on Kyrgyzstan. Employing an analytical approach, the research addresses the challenges posed by structural reforms within the country. A logical framework is employed, leveraging speeches and official declarations to glean insights into the broader political transition and institutional transformations encompassing the entire republic. Primary sources, such as the Kyrgyz Constitution, election code, official records, reports, studies compiled by Kyrgyz officials, decisions, declarations, agreements, rules, and speeches, constitute the foundation of this analysis. Furthermore, secondary sources, including books, articles, online posts, magazines, newspapers, and publicly accessible online resources, supplement the research. </span>https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94495_b415f82a0f4b6a6b41bb8ee7b145bf0d.pdfUniversity of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801The Effects of the Perpetuation of the War in Ukraine on International Competition between Russia and the United States9311794496ENHamedMousaviDepartment of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, IranArtemanRad GoudarziCentre for Graduate International Studies, University of Tehran, IranJournal Article20231023The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, followed by widespread Western sanctions led by Washington against Moscow, marked the beginning of a new phase of conflict between the United States and Russia along parallel and complementary fronts. Despite some initial success, Russia's military advancements were met with numerous setbacks. Moscow has not only failed to meet its minimum war objectives more than a year after the conflict began but also risks losing its military gains. This article argues that since prolonging the war and thereby weakening Moscow is in the US interest, it is logical for the US and NATO to equip the Ukrainian army and help it resist Russia's advance, as well as support and encourage Kyiv not to surrender and continue the war to retake the separated areas. This extension of the war of attrition is necessary in order to give the economic front of the war against Moscow the time it needs to become effective. Simultaneously, the war has led to a closer relationship between Europe and the United States in the shadow of the Russian threat, the comprehensive, resolute, and continuous support of the entire Western camp to Ukraine, the justification of America's military presence on European soil, and the consolidation of NATO's identity. According to the article's argument, these factors suggest that the war will gradually erode Russia's international standing and influence over time. https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94496_093ec910a030549f993c973375a1f2f5.pdfUniversity of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801Poland and the Three Seas Initiative: Iran's Role in the Energy Security of Central and Eastern Europe11913594497ENAliSabbaghianDepartment of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, IranRajDeep SinghDepartment of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, IranJournal Article20231023As the heir to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which once ruled a large swath of Central and Eastern Europe from the Baltic region to today's Ukraine and Slovakia, Poland wants to play a leading role in the emerging institutional architecture in Central and Eastern Europe. In this regard, the issue of energy security is a priority for Poland and likewise other Central and Eastern European countries due to their high dependence on Russia, especially for the majority of their natural gas consumption. The main question of this research is: What role does Iran play in the energy security of Poland and the rest of Central and Eastern European region? The hypothesis of this research states that Iran is positioned as a major potential energy supplier within the Poland-led Three Seas Initiative in Central and Eastern Europe in view of efforts to build an energy-resilient region. The main research question was dealt with using the qualitative approach within the theoretical framework of Thazha Varkey Paul’s soft balancing theory. The paper’s results indicate that Iran will be an indispensable partner for the geopolitical wing of the Three Seas Initiative and the envisioned Indo-Atlantic maritime route.https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94497_514e4c955a561d75e85b7f2c99c1c87d.pdfUniversity of Tehran PressJournal of Iran and Central Eurasia Studies2645-60605120220801Economic Factors Affecting the Future of Iran-Turkey Relations on the Horizon of 203013716594498ENSeyed HamzehSafaviDepartment of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, IranSeyed MahdiNabaviDepartment of Regional Studies, Comprehensive University of Imam Hussain (AS), Iran0000-0002-2930-5751Journal Article20231023One of the most crucial facets of Iran-Turkey relations lies in its economic dimension. Economic ties between the two nations play an essential role and have remained intact even during challenging times and fluctuations in political issues. Hence, this study examines the economic factors that influence the future of Iran-Turkey relations. The objective is to enable policymakers and decision-makers in both countries to explore alternative options for effective decision-making. This research adopts an exploratory approach, aiming to serve a practical purpose. It utilizes a blend of data sources, and its analysis follows a correlational research method. The central inquiry of this study remains focused: What are the key economic factors that will shape the future of Iran-Turkey relations by 2030? To answer this question, the economic variables affecting the relationships between the two countries were studied. By distributing a questionnaire among 35 Iranian experts on Iran-Turkey relationships and using the IPA analysis method, the factors whose importance and uncertainty were higher than the threshold value were identified. Finally, after careful examination, two crucial economic factors have emerged as significant drivers impacting the future of Iran-Turkey relations: economic sanctions on Iran and competition over energy transmission lines. These factors demand close attention and analysis in order to navigate the dynamics of the bilateral relationship between these nations in the coming years.https://jices.ut.ac.ir/article_94498_2a3a0d194743eb6164c301f77c7baa46.pdf