The Impact of Iranian Political Elites’ Perception and Misperception on Iran-the US Relations (2012-2020)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student in International Relations, Allameh Tabatabie University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of law and political science, Allameh Tabatabie University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22059/jices.2025.387007.1077

Abstract

Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have historically oscillated between limited cooperation and pronounced antagonism. While structural and geopolitical explanations for this volatility are abundant, the perceptual frameworks of Iranian political elites remain insufficiently explored. Employing Robert Jervis’s theory of perception and misperception, this article investigates how elite Iranian discourse represented the United States between 2012 and 2020. Drawing on a qualitative content analysis of 147 purposively selected speeches, interviews, and policy documents from presidential, ministerial, and parliamentary sources, the study identifies three major perceptual shifts. Following the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Washington was increasingly depicted as an existential threat engaging in “economic terrorism.” Defensive posturing was re-legitimised through historical analogies of betrayal and narratives of ontological insecurity, while regional security discourse emphasised strategic autonomy and resistance. The findings illustrate how cognitive biases—particularly confirmation bias—shape elite interpretations of U.S. actions, reinforcing threat perceptions and perpetuating mutual mistrust. The article argues that addressing these entrenched perceptual dynamics is essential for the success of any future diplomatic engagement.

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