Journal of Iran and Regional Studies

Journal of Iran and Regional Studies

The Limits of Coercion: Evaluating the Trump Administration’s Maximum-Pressure Campaign against Iran, 2018–2021

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohammad-Javad Zarif 1
Mohammad Reza Jamali 2
1 Faculty of World Studies University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Faculty of World Studies University of Tehran,Tehran, Iran.
10.22059/jices.2026.420267.1119
Abstract
The United States has long relied on coercive measures, particularly economic sanctions, to influence Iran’s political demeanor. This study examines the effectiveness of the “Maximum Pressure” campaign (2018–2021), launched after the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The campaign aimed to alter Iran’s strategic behavior by compelling Tehran to accept U.S. demands regarding its nuclear program, regional policies, and missile development. Drawing on Phil Haun’s Asymmetric Coercion theory and using Process Tracing, the study answers this research question: how and through what mechanisms did the campaign affect Iran’s strategic behavior? This study finds that the campaign failed to achieve its main objectives for three reasons: U.S. demands were perceived in Tehran as existential threats to the state or its political survival, second Tehran did not perceive threats and punishments would end upon making concessions, and finally the credibility of certain U.S. threats was limited. Hence, the perceived cost of resistance remained lower than that of compliance, leading Iran to resist U.S. coercive pressure.
Keywords
Iran
United States
Maximum Pressure
U.S. Foreign Policy
Coercion
Journal of Iran and Regional Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 18 September 2026