Economic Factors Affecting the Future of Iran-Turkey Relations on the Horizon of 2030

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Regional Studies, Comprehensive University of Imam Hussain (AS), Iran


One of the most crucial facets of Iran-Turkey relations lies in its economic dimension. Economic ties between the two nations play an essential role and have remained intact even during challenging times and fluctuations in political issues. Hence, this study examines the economic factors that influence the future of Iran-Turkey relations. The objective is to enable policymakers and decision-makers in both countries to explore alternative options for effective decision-making. This research adopts an exploratory approach, aiming to serve a practical purpose. It utilizes a blend of data sources, and its analysis follows a correlational research method. The central inquiry of this study remains focused: What are the key economic factors that will shape the future of Iran-Turkey relations by 2030? To answer this question, the economic variables affecting the relationships between the two countries were studied. By distributing a questionnaire among 35 Iranian experts on Iran-Turkey relationships and using the IPA analysis method, the factors whose importance and uncertainty were higher than the threshold value were identified. Finally, after careful examination, two crucial economic factors have emerged as significant drivers impacting the future of Iran-Turkey relations: economic sanctions on Iran and competition over energy transmission lines. These factors demand close attention and analysis in order to navigate the dynamics of the bilateral relationship between these nations in the coming years.